BRAZIL | TUNGARU PRESS | October 25, 2026
Brazil's presidential election has entered a decisive stage as major changes in the country's working class threaten to reshape its political future, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva facing a difficult challenge from right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro.
The two candidates are preparing for a closely watched runoff election on Sunday after Bolsonaro secured the highest number of votes in the first round earlier this month.
The result has raised concerns among Lula's supporters, particularly in traditional working-class communities that once formed the backbone of his political movement.
Since Brazil restored direct presidential elections in 1989, every candidate who finished first in the opening round has gone on to win the presidency, adding pressure to Lula's campaign.
The changing political landscape is especially visible in Osasco, a former industrial centre near São Paulo, where factories have increasingly been replaced by shopping centres, technology businesses and app-based delivery services.
The municipality supported Lula during the 2022 presidential election but shifted toward Bolsonaro in this year's first round, reflecting a broader transformation in the country's workforce and political priorities.
Industrial Decline Changes Brazil's Political Landscape
For decades, industrial workers and labour unions played a central role in Lula's political success.
The president, who grew up in poverty in northeastern Brazil, became a metalworker before emerging as a prominent trade union leader and eventually reaching the country's highest political office.
His personal journey continues to inspire supporters who view him as a symbol of working-class progress.
However, the economic environment that helped build Lula's political movement has changed significantly.
Gilberto Almazan, a metalworkers' union leader in Osasco, acknowledged that traditional labour organisations are struggling to adapt to the country's changing employment patterns.
He explained that many factories previously operating in the area, including metalworking, chemical and textile businesses, have closed.
Shopping centres and service-based businesses have gradually replaced industrial workplaces, transforming the local economy.
As a result, fewer workers are employed in traditional manufacturing jobs, while increasing numbers depend on services, technology platforms and self-employment.
Almazan believes labour unions have failed to modernise quickly enough to represent these emerging groups of workers.
Rise of Gig Economy Challenges Traditional Politics
Brazil's growing gig economy has created a new generation of workers whose priorities differ from those of traditional industrial employees.
Millions of Brazilians now earn a living through ride-sharing services, food delivery platforms, small businesses and informal employment.
Others operate market stalls, provide beauty services or work independently without the protections commonly associated with formal employment.
Almazan described this shift as the growing influence of app-based employment, which has fundamentally changed the relationship between workers, employers and the government.
Unlike factory workers who traditionally relied on collective bargaining and labour unions, many independent workers place greater importance on flexible schedules, personal freedom and opportunities to increase their earnings.
This transformation presents a challenge for Lula, whose political identity has long been associated with organised labour, workers' rights and government-supported welfare programmes.
Political analyst and author Richard Lapper believes the shift reflects broader global economic changes, including declining manufacturing employment and the expansion of service industries.
However, he argues that Brazil has experienced these changes more sharply because its industrial economy developed relatively late before undergoing rapid decline.
Lapper suggested that Lula's earlier economic achievements may have contributed to the expectations now challenging his political support.
Rising Living Costs Drive Voters Toward Bolsonaro
Economic dissatisfaction has emerged as a major factor influencing voters in former Lula strongholds.
Many residents say they are struggling with rising prices, taxation, household debt and concerns about government spending.
In Osasco, lawyer Gisele Bonfim said she supported Lula in 2022 but has decided to vote for Flávio Bolsonaro in the current election.
She explained that her decision was motivated by a desire for political change and hopes for a different economic direction.
Other voters expressed similar frustrations.
Tairine, a street vendor who sells hot dogs, said increasing taxes and the rising cost of essential goods have made it difficult for low-income Brazilians to manage their finances.
Although she previously avoided voting, despite Brazil's compulsory voting system, she now intends to support Bolsonaro.
She believes the current administration has failed to deliver meaningful improvements in everyday living conditions.
Bolsonaro has proposed reducing government expenditure, cutting the number of government ministries and lowering certain taxes.
However, he has also indicated that some of Lula's major social welfare programmes would remain in place.
Economic Improvements Fail to Satisfy Some Voters
Despite criticism of Lula's economic management, Brazil has recorded several positive indicators during his current presidency.
Unemployment has fallen to historically low levels, while the country has been removed from the United Nations' Hunger Map following improvements in food security.
However, these achievements have not translated into widespread voter satisfaction.
Lapper believes Brazil is experiencing a gap between economic progress and public expectations.
Although some households may be better off than before, rising prices, expensive borrowing and high levels of personal debt continue to create financial pressure.
For many voters, improvements in national economic statistics do not necessarily reflect their personal experiences.
Robson, a 53-year-old municipal government employee from Osasco, is among those who have withdrawn their support from Lula.
Originally from Pernambuco, Lula's home state, Robson grew up supporting the president and his political movement.
However, he now criticises the government's spending policies and believes excessive taxation has placed an unreasonable burden on ordinary citizens.
He described how some households face difficult decisions between paying existing debts and purchasing essential food supplies.
His concerns reflect growing dissatisfaction among sections of Brazil's working class that once strongly supported Lula.
Lula Launches Major Campaign to Mobilise Supporters
Facing declining support in several traditional strongholds, Lula's campaign has intensified efforts to encourage voters to participate in the runoff election.
The president's team has organised large demonstrations, particularly targeting younger voters and students.
Campaign organisers claimed that one rally in São Paulo attracted approximately one million participants.
Supporters hope these gatherings will generate enthusiasm and persuade those who abstained during the first round to return to polling stations.
According to election figures cited in the original report, approximately 33 million eligible voters did not participate in the first round, representing the highest abstention level since 1998.
This has created a major opportunity for both candidates to attract voters who previously stayed away.
Lula's supporters believe increased participation could significantly influence the final result.
One campaign volunteer, Leila, said many people avoided voting because they believed their participation would make little difference.
She explained that the campaign is now focused on convincing those voters that their decisions can influence the country's future.
Social Media Becomes Central to Election Campaign
Social media has become an increasingly important tool in Lula's efforts to regain political momentum.
Videos showing large crowds attending campaign rallies have circulated widely across online platforms.
Some images and clips from the demonstrations have attracted millions of views, helping the campaign reach younger audiences.
Lula, now 80, has also adopted a more active online presence to challenge concerns about his age.
The president has shared videos of himself moving energetically between campaign events and interacting with supporters.
He has also embraced selfies and informal online content to present himself as an active and approachable political figure.
His campaign hopes that digital engagement will translate into higher voter turnout during the final round.
Poorer Communities Remain Important Lula Strongholds
Despite losing support in some working-class areas, Lula continues to attract backing from many of Brazil's poorest communities.
In Maré, one of Rio de Janeiro's largest informal settlements, residents remain divided over the election.
The area, which experiences significant challenges involving organised crime and public security, recorded higher-than-average voter abstention during the first round.
Although Lula secured more votes there than Bolsonaro, low participation weakened his overall electoral performance.
For some residents, government welfare programmes remain a major reason for supporting the president.
Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother living in Maré, said she earns less than £300 per month and depends heavily on policies designed to support low-income families.
She praised the Lula administration for increasing the minimum wage, improving employment protections and providing access to essential medicines.
However, she expressed concern about Bolsonaro's proposed approach to organised crime.
Security Policies Raise Concerns in Rio's Favelas
Flávio Bolsonaro has advocated stronger action against criminal organisations operating in Brazil's urban communities.
Earlier this year, he reportedly sought support from the United States to classify Comando Vermelho, a major Brazilian criminal organisation, as a terrorist group.
The proposal has raised concerns among some residents of Rio's favelas, where heavily armed criminal groups maintain a significant presence.
Vitoria fears that tougher security policies could result in more aggressive police operations and increased risks for families living in these communities.
She referred to a major police raid in Rio last year that reportedly left more than 130 people dead.
Her concerns reflect broader tensions surrounding public security policies in Brazil, where residents often face threats from both organised criminal violence and confrontations involving security forces.
Another Maré resident, Andreza Dionísio, suggested that low voter turnout in the community was partly caused by last-minute changes to polling locations.
She also pointed to widespread disappointment with politics and a lack of confidence that elections would improve people's lives.
Evangelical Churches Gain Growing Political Influence
Another major factor reshaping Brazil's political landscape is the increasing influence of evangelical Christianity.
Approximately one-quarter of Brazilians now identify as evangelical, making religious communities an increasingly important force in national elections.
Across working-class neighbourhoods, evangelical churches provide more than religious services.
Many offer assistance with childcare, employment, food supplies and other everyday challenges.
These activities have strengthened their relationships with communities that sometimes feel neglected by government institutions.
Religious leaders have also become influential political figures, with some openly supporting conservative candidates.
One of the country's most prominent evangelical pastors, Silas Malafaia, leads the Assembleia de Deus Vitória em Cristo church, based in Rio de Janeiro.
Malafaia has millions of social media followers and maintains close connections with former president Jair Bolsonaro, the father of Flávio Bolsonaro.
He previously officiated at Jair Bolsonaro's wedding.
The pastor is currently under investigation over allegations that he interfered with legal proceedings connected to the former president's attempted coup case.
Malafaia denies wrongdoing and maintains that the investigation is politically motivated.
Conservative Values Influence Voting Decisions
Malafaia believes evangelical churches play a crucial role in supporting working-class communities.
He argues that religious institutions provide people with encouragement, practical assistance and a sense of purpose.
During church services, messages about personal development, faith and family values are frequently delivered to large congregations.
Some services are also broadcast online, allowing religious leaders to reach audiences far beyond their local communities.
Malafaia has publicly supported Flávio Bolsonaro, arguing that the candidate's positions on family values, abortion and gender-related issues align with the beliefs promoted by his church.
The growing influence of evangelical organisations has strengthened conservative political movements in communities that previously supported left-wing parties.
However, analysts suggest that support for Bolsonaro is not always driven by strong agreement with his policies.
For many voters, their decision appears to reflect dissatisfaction with Lula's administration and a desire for change.
A Defining Moment for Brazil's Political Future
The presidential runoff comes at a time when Brazil's social and economic landscape is undergoing significant transformation.
Traditional industrial employment has declined, independent and app-based work has expanded, and religious organisations have become increasingly influential in working-class communities.
These developments have weakened some of the political relationships that helped Lula build his career.
Although the president remains a powerful symbol of working-class achievement, his campaign now faces the challenge of appealing to voters whose employment patterns, economic concerns and expectations differ from those of previous generations.
Bolsonaro, meanwhile, is seeking to capitalise on dissatisfaction over living costs, taxation, crime and government management.
The high level of abstention in the first round means voter participation could play a decisive role in determining the outcome.
For Lula, the challenge is not simply reminding Brazilians of his achievements but convincing them that his leadership can address the country's present difficulties.
For Bolsonaro, the task is turning public frustration into sufficient electoral support to secure the presidency.
As Brazil prepares to choose its next leader, the election is becoming a major test of how changing economic realities, political loyalties and social values are reshaping one of Latin America's largest democracies.
Original reporting: Ione Wells, BBC News, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
Source: BBC News
Adapted and rewritten for Tungaru Press
Tungaru Press | Local Voices, Global Stories.
